Consumer confidence in the United States has plummeted to its lowest level in over a decade, according to the latest Consumer Confidence Survey® released by The Conference Board. The survey’s findings reveal a deepening pessimism about future economic conditions, with key indicators signaling potential challenges ahead.

Key Findings

• Consumer Confidence Index®: Dropped by 7.2 points in March to 92.9 (1985=100), marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
• Expectations Index: Fell sharply by 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80, which often signals a looming recession.
• Present Situation Index: Decreased by 3.6 points to 134.5, reflecting weaker assessments of current business conditions and labor market stability.

“Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “Of the Index’s five components, only consumers’ assessment of present labor market conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current business conditions weakened to close to neutral. Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low. Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.”

The survey highlighted several contributing factors:

• Age and Income Variations: Confidence fell most significantly among individuals aged 55 and older, while younger consumers under 35 showed a slight uptick in optimism about current conditions. Households earning over $125,000 were the only income group to report stable confidence levels.
• Stock Market Sentiment: For the first time since late 2023, more consumers expect stock prices to decline rather than rise. Only 37.4% anticipate gains in the stock market over the next year, down from 47% in February.
• Inflation Concerns: Average inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March, driven by concerns over rising costs for essential goods such as food and tariffs on imports.

The deteriorating Expectations Index suggests that many Americans foresee tougher economic conditions ahead. Nearly one-third of respondents anticipate worsening business conditions and fewer job opportunities over the next six months. Furthermore, purchasing plans for homes and cars have declined on a six-month moving average basis, though intentions to buy big-ticket items like appliances have risen slightly as consumers look to avoid potential price hikes due to tariffs.