The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently looked at the Republican Party’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and explained what it could mean for the U.S. government’s finances over the next 10 years (2025–2034).

The CBO says this bill will add almost $3.4 trillion more to the national debt by 2034. The government plans to spend about $1.1 trillion less overall. These are called “direct outlays” and include things like funding for certain programs. But at the same time, the government expects to collect about $4.5 trillion less in revenue (mainly from taxes) over those same years.

The main reason the national debt rises so much is because the government will be taking in way less money from taxes and other sources, and the decrease in spending doesn’t make up for it. Most of the increase in debt happens in the “on-budget” part of the government, which means it doesn’t include Social Security or the Postal Service.

Major Policy Changes by Title

Title I: Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry

• Outlay decrease: $120.96 billion over ten years.
• Deep SNAP cuts: Expansions of work requirements and restrictions are estimated to reduce direct spending by tens of billions annually.
• Increased state mandates: States must contribute matching funds for SNAP, imposing what the CBO calls one of the largest intergovernmental mandates on record.

Title II: Armed Services

• Outlay increase: $149.54 billion over ten years, with large, front-loaded investments in shipbuilding, air and missile defense, and personnel.

Title III: Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

• Deficit impact: Modest net reduction, mostly via caps and rescissions of existing housing and regulatory program funding.

Title IV: Commerce, Science, and Transportation

• Swinging from investment to cuts: While there are new appropriations for Coast Guard and NASA programs, aggressive rescission of spectrum auction and transportation funds leads to net deficit reduction of $44 billion.

Title V: Energy and Natural Resources

• Major rollbacks: Rescission of clean energy grants and new oil and gas leasing rules yield a $21.3 billion outlay reduction.

Title VI: Environment and Public Works

• Broad climate spending cuts: Rescissions and repeals essentially wipe out key climate initiatives. Overall, spending drops by nearly $5 billion compared to previous law.

Title VII: Finance (Tax & Health)

• Enormous deficit increase:
  • Tax relief: Individual and business tax reforms reduce revenues by a projected $4.5 trillion.
  • Medicaid, marketplace, and ACA cuts: Medicaid eligibility restrictions, rollback of subsidies, and new work requirements are projected to decrease outlays by more than $940 billion, but fall well short of offsetting the tax reductions.
  • Mandate on de minimis goods: Importers must now remit duties on more low-value shipments, representing a significant private-sector mandate.
• On-budget deficit impact: Title VII increases on-budget deficits beyond the 10-year window, according to CBO projections.

Title VIII: Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions

• Loan forgiveness rollback: Sweeping changes in federal student loan programs and stricter Pell Grant rules yield an outlay reduction of $284 billion over ten years.
• Grant program changes: New restrictions and eligibility requirements for loans and grants to both students and educational institutions.

Title IX: Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

• Border investments: Includes $133 billion in new appropriations for border infrastructure, detention capacity, and technology.
• Federal employee benefits: Savings are partially offset by FEHB changes, but these are relatively minor compared to border-related spending.

Title X: Judiciary

• Fee increases and new funding: New immigration-related fees raise $37 billion in revenues, partially offsetting nearly $46 billion in new spending on law enforcement, justice, and radiation compensation programs.

Health and Social Impact

• Uninsured expected to rise: The CBO estimates the law will result in 10 million more people without health insurance by 2034, primarily due to cuts to Medicaid and rollback of ACA subsidies.
• Marketplace premiums: Gross benchmark premiums for ACA marketplace plans are projected to drop 0.6% by 2034, though with a much-reduced subsidy structure.
• Longer-term deficit: The CBO warns that the law will continue to increase on-budget deficits even after the 10-year scoring window.